This will cover three events, all very different in their base topic but collectively germane as to how financial markets work.
First, unless you are Rip Van Winkle, you will recall the great turmoil expressed by economists over the pending damage the Central Bank would unleash on the markets if interest rates were raised in their September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. Such an increase, it was argued, was ‘too soon’, and ability of companies to pay their debt would be increased, so the values of the companies would fall. Thus, in their infinite wisdom, in the much watched decision, the Fed left interest rates unchanged from their infinitesimally low levels. “Whew”, the experts said. The day the decision was announced — markets fell (60 points)! Just to show it wasn’t a fluke, the next day they fell MORE (160 points). I guess the market was not so convinced, in spite of all the prognosticators woes.
Second, we have an unmitigated humanitarian disaster in the mass exodus of people out of the Middle East. While we are working through the solutions, which are hard enough (and the number is not the convenient 160,000 people initially discussed, but TEN TIMES that level of human migration), we must pay heed not to forget to focus on the cause; Bad leadership. Roughly one year back in these letters I professed to you that the most unstable areas of the world politically correlate to an unusually high degree with those where unemployment is the highest. No rational mother or father is going to test the leaky rubber boats of the Mediterranean IF THEY DON’T HAVE TO. They do it because they cannot earn a living at home, and the conditions for their family is unsafe. Call it what you will, and it has many warts, but capitalism is the primary creator of jobs in the world, and through this singular means lifts millions out of poverty (the evidence is overwhelming). If world leaders don’t take care of bad leadership in one country, people will naturally move. Dictators don’t screw up only their countries, but with open borders, they screw up the neighbors around them. Capitalism does not offer free rides, and the world is paying.
Lastly, stock markets are down across the board, and as your financial advisor I would be disingenuous not to address that reality. The reasons are many, but keep in mind ONE of them is ‘it’s about time’. On average, as said before, markets experience a 14.2% ‘correction’ every year. It’s been over 1,400 days since that has last happened. Where we go next is anyone’s guess, but I surmise that a level of 14,000 on the Dow has equal probability to rising back to 18,000. What that means you should do is…..nothing. I can assure you that I’m thinking about it enough for both of us and contemplating next steps. Nobody knows where the market is going next, we just know it seems likely to continue its long-term 5-9% average increase. Your account has sufficient fixed income in it to fulfill the spending needs you have previously expressed. Therefore, equities are not being sold, which would lock in your loss, but actually might be bought over the next 9-18 months. Buying low is so much better than buying high.
Now, lest you think we forgot, back to the base concept; Prognosticators (especially the experts) don’t prognosticate well, and capitalism is the invisible hand of Adam Smith at work. You don’t have to think about it very long to recognize ‘invisible’ means, by its very nature, unknowable. Markets will go where they are going to go…because they simply have to. Independent business men and women around the world, including immigrants, adapt EVERY DAY to the conditions around them. The collective genius of these literally billions of decisions is what makes capitalism work. Good leadership’s job, the government’s job, is to provide level playing fields where the rule of law, property rights, and independent courts are enforced. People will do the desired improvements from there naturally.
The baseball great Yogi Berra passed this week, but he made the best quip I can conceive for closing this economic expose: “You can observe a lot by just watching.”
Keep watching, keep learning.
