When I was a kid, the above subject line statement was a bad joke or an emphatic way of stating: “What I just told you is true!” Now, however, you can actually bet on thousands of events that sound like a joke through what is called the ‘prediction market’. This letter is to talk about the prediction market and about betting in general because it is unfortunately very common that adults today are confusing investing with betting and being irreparably hurt by it.
First let me give a little background. When Pope Francis died at age 88 in 2025, I want you know that you could NOT have bet on whether the Pope was Catholic because prediction markets do not allow you to bet on factual events – and the head of the Vatican MUST be Catholic. Nonetheless, you could have bet[i]:
- What the next Pope’s first name would be?
- How long will the Cardinals take to elect a Pope (i.e. When does the conclave end and the puff of white smoke appear?)
The above is an example of the prediction market. The two biggest players are Kalshi and Polymarket (Kalshi does events (contracts) like weather outcomes, and Polymarket is more known for global political wagers and cryptocurrencies). Nonetheless, these entities (and others copying them) have come out of nowhere and are increasingly popular, with trades expanding from 240,000 in 2024 to 43 million in 2025[ii]. Though they represent a new venue for ‘betting’ that is only in the tens of billions currently, the market is estimated by some to hit $1 Trillion dollars annually by the end of this decade[iii]. For perspective, the entire ERISA market (company savings plans) is roughly $13.9 Trillion currently[iv].
There’s also the fast-climbing sports betting market, one who’s top two players are FanDuel and DraftKings. The former is well-known for online real-time friendly outcome betting (the final score or who wins) and the later is more niche-oriented and does ‘prop bets’ (short for proposition bets, such as the 500 or more ways to wager on the 2026 Super Bowl[v] such as how long will the national anthem take to sing (116.5 seconds), to what color Gatorade gets dumped on the winning coach at the end of the game (lime)). The sports betting market is growing fast as well and expected to hit nearly $200 Billion by the end of the decade[vi].
Finally, making sure I don’t ignore Bugsy Siegel and get whacked, the casino industry in these United States is currently around $100 Billion and projected to be $142 Billion by 2031. In an astounding statistic, in spite of the fact that ALL THE ODDS in casinos are in the houses favor, 55% of all Americans think investing is as risky as gambling[vii] (translation: gamblers get a negative return whereas stock market returns average a positive 10% per annum[viii]).
Unfortunately, all of the above three examples are increasingly being confused by young people with investing. This mis-portrayal is damaging for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the diminishing size of their own bank account.
Interesting tidbit: In States where online sports betting is allowed, every dollar put toward sports betting is estimated to decrease household 401k investments by $2.13[ix] (a 200% negative outcome).
The betting-versus-investing trend is so pronounced that there is a newly coined term for this misconception: ‘financial nihilism’. This high risk / high return thrill-seeking reward approach has to do with the erosion of the American Dream where hard work pays off, the worker can eventually buy a home of their own and their nest egg grows enough so that they eventually get in control of their financial affairs and retire someday. This erosion is certainly fueled by the fusion of technology (ubiquitous cell phones), gamification, and addiction (gambling addiction, per se, combined with the addictive nature of social media itself, recently had Mark Zuckerberg testifying in Washington D.C.). However, in my opinion something more fundamental is at work here and I think we find it’s roots in the ‘affordability crisis’. If the young person feels they can never get ahead like their parents did because the game has changed (the average price of homes in the United States is now $473,000) they will seek – not totally irrationally – dangerous alternatives. If you possessed no hope, what difference does an all-or-nothing bet make?
Tidbit #2: On Polymarket, the odds of the second coming of Jesus Christ appearing before January 1, 2027 just doubled in 2026, beating the return of bitcoin.[x] Geez, I kid you not…
We need to get back to teaching investing. Literally, teaching it and not just preaching it. Buying companies (stocks) or portions of bonds IS real investing, it IS real ownership, and it promises real returns. We should also teach, as Paul Samuelson (the great professor of economics) once said; “Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” Like the solution to many of the world’s problems, you need to bring both education and hope to the table.
It remains my distinct privilege and deep honor to serve you well.
Patrick Zumbusch
Founder and CEO
[i] “How to Bet on the Next Pope: How the Pope is Chosen and Best Pope Betting Sites” (James Bisson, Sportsbook Review, May 6, 2025)”
[ii] “Prediction Markets Statistics 2026: Market Size, Growth & Trends” (Maria Webb, Gambling Insider, February 9, 2026)
[iii] “Prediction Markets Could Hit A Trillion Dollars In Trading Volume By The End Of Hhis Decade” (Contessa Brewer, CNBC, December 17th, 2025)
[iv] “Release: Quarterly Retirement Market Data, Third Quarter 2025” (Investment Company Institute, January 15, 2026)
[v] “Results And Outcomes For Super Bowl 2026 Prop Bets” (Matthew Bonesteel, New York Times, February 8, 2026)
[vi] “Sports Betting Market (2025 – 2030)” (Market Analyis Report, Grand View Research, February 22, 2026)
[vii] “55% of Americans Think Investing Is As Risky As Gambling” (Jaqueline DeMarco, Magnify Money, October 1, 2019)
[viii] “Historical Average Stock Market Returns for S&P 500 (5-year to 150-year averages)” (Investing, Trade That Swing.com, February 26, 2026)
[ix] “The Explosion Of Online Sports Betting Is Taking A Toll On How People Invest” (Bob Pisani, CNBC, August 21, 2014)
[x] “Odds Of Jesus Christ Appearing In 2026 Double, Beating Return On Bitcoin” (Shaurya Malwa and Sheldon Reback, CoinDesk, February 8, 2026)
